![]() interventions alongside trends in structural factors associated with them to estimate the risk of future armed conflicts and the demands they may place on U.S. The model utilizes historical trends in warfare and U.S. To assist in this type of estimation, RAND developed a more sophisticated, dynamic forecasting model. interventions in them are likely to be, but reliable estimation of these trends is difficult. Will conflicts like those in Syria and in Ukraine become more common? Will we see a resurgence in interstate war? And how is the United States most likely to respond to the range of contingencies that may arise? What size and types of forces is it likely to commit? How will these demands vary under different states of the world? Decisions about posture, training, recruiting, investment, operational planning, and strategic guidance rely on estimating how frequent both armed conflicts and U.S. Recent debates over future trends in armed conflict and how involved the United States might be in such conflicts have important implications for U.S.
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